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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."